Capital Deployment Data Defies CAGR Assumptions,
Identifies Risks that Could Stall the Juggernaut

BOSTON: MOCA Systems, Inc. (MSI) announced a new report from MSI Economics, the research unit of the construction services and technology firm. Sizing the Surge: U.S. Data Center Construction Outlook to 2030 is a seventeen page report that merges existing research and data sources and enhances these with original analysis and MSI-sourced capital deployment data to provide the most comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. market through 2030. It points to a short-term acceleration that outpaces smoothed long-term models, making reliance on compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) alone a strategic risk for firms planning capital, staffing, and infrastructure commitments. While long-range models suggest 15% to 30% CAGR, with AI-specific forecasts climbing as high as 65%, near-term evidence points to even more aggressive—and front-loaded—growth.

There has been much speculation and analysis about the trajectory of data center construction; a sector on the upswing driven by AI workloads and hyperscale cloud growth. With this research, MSI Economics set out to determine the real size of the boom, and implications for markets that design and build the massive facilities in what’s become the fastest-growing segment of nonresidential construction.

To prepare the report, MSI Economics factored in more than a dozen analyst forecasts, and information about committed capital projects, utility filings, and pipeline data. The team compared analyst projections with project-level capital deployment, and linked data center permit applications to the pace of construction demand. The report highlights power, labor, permitting, and equipment as potential brakes on growth, and explores implications for engineering, architecture, contracting, and construction technology.

Key takeaways include:

• Near-term peak: The confluence of AI training demand, long-lead equipment arriving, and secured power positions will produce $86B in U.S. market growth in 2026.
• Grid is the bottleneck: U.S. transmission interconnection timelines have stretched materially, with gigawatt-scale projects competing for scarce capacity.
• Labor shortages: The workforce gap remains severe.
• Permitting and regulatory complexity: With local delays across building, environmental, and utility agencies, site approvals can stretch 6-18 months or longer.
• Long lead equipment: Procurement can run 80–210 weeks for transformers, and 60-120 weeks for switchgear and generators.
• Contractors will remain at the center of delivery: Contractors will capture the majority of spend, while engineers and architects provide critical expertise to navigate power, cooling, and standardization challenges.
• Construction tech stack: The rapid adoption of construction technology tools will define winners and losers.

Brandon Michalski, MSI's principal economist and the report’s author, noted: “For stakeholders, the message is clear: relying solely on smooth CAGR models risks underestimating the current boom. Firms must anchor their planning in real-time capital deployment, project-level data, and the realities of grid interconnection queues, labor bottlenecks, and equipment lead times. Success will come to those who can balance near-term intensity with long-term adaptability— designing projects that meet today’s requirements while retaining flexibility for the next wave of growth.”

The report is an indispensable guide for those making planning and investment decisions in data center construction and related end markets, as well as industry watchers, reporters and analysts.

The full text of the report can be found here.

About MOCA Systems, Inc.

MOCA Systems, Inc. (MSI) is a leading provider of services and software for the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industries. MSI delivers innovative solutions to Owners, Engineers, Architects, and Contractors building some of the world’s largest, most complex construction projects. A profitable firm with offices across the United States and partners around the globe, MSI drives construction excellence worldwide.

MSI’s MOCA Services unit provides a full suite of services and technologies that ensure projects are delivered on time, on budget, and meet all Owner expectations.

MSI’s Touchplan software is the leading planning platform for data center construction and commissioning, is used on more than 300 of the largest data center construction projects, by 50% of the largest contractors and the four largest hyperscale cloud service providers.

To learn more, visit mocasystems.com.

About MSI Economics

MSI Economics provides data-driven economic analysis and advisory services for the architecture, engineering, and construction industries. The team delivers market analysis, feasibility studies, cost-benefit evaluations, economic risk assessments, investment appraisals, and policy guidance to help clients evaluate projects and portfolios with confidence. Drawing on deep expertise in construction, engineering, and applied economics, MSI Economics offers actionable insights and publishes “Today’s Construction Economy Report,” a quarterly forecast that tracks trends and informs strategic decision-making across the U.S. construction market.

To learn more, visit mocaservices.com/services/economic-services/.

Fonte: Business Wire