Report on the impact of tariffs and the war on international trade

WILMINGTON, Del.: Gedeth Network, a leading global consultancy, today released "Resilience in a Fragmented World: How Companies Are Adapting to the New Geopolitics of Trade". The study draws insights from responses gathered after Gedeth Research Center contacted more than 50,000 professionals across 90 countries in Q1 2026. Conducted in collaboration with DHL Express and Universidade Europeia, it captures pre- and post-Iran-US-Israel war sentiment on tariffs, wars, sales, employment, opportunities, risks, and strategies.

Despite 2025's escalated "Liberation Day" tariffs and the fresh Iran-US-Israel conflict, nearly half (48.7%) of participants expect business growth in 2026-outpacing the IMF's 3.1% global GDP forecast. Optimism softened from 59.3% pre-war to 45% post-war, with uncertainty rising to 24.2%, yet only 6.8% predict decline. This mirrors post-COVID trade rebounds, signaling strategic adaptation over panic.

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs, 10-50 employees) shine brightest, projecting 55% growth due to superior pivoting agility versus larger firms hampered by legacy chains. Sales outlooks are bullish at 57% expecting increases (17% significant), while 56.7% anticipate stable employment and 22.7% workforce expansion-betting on productivity gains.

Regionally, the Americas lead optimism at 60% growth expectations, spearheaded by Venezuela and the USA. Yet U.S. appeal wanes as policy volatility deters entrants, turning it into a market professionals increasingly avoid. The UK logs profound pessimism from entrenched trends, while EMEA's outlook sours most post-war (43% growth vs. pre-war highs). Asia-Pacific accelerates "China+N" diversification beyond Asia, boosting proximate hubs like Northern Triangle nations and Spain in Europe.

Top opportunities: AI/digitalization (56.8%), new markets (46.5%), innovation (38.7%). Strategies prioritize diversification (33.7%), efficiency (22.1%). Threats: instability (67%), tariffs (50.9%). Europe reigns attractive (58%), with Tech/ICT (63%) as premier sector.

"These are complicated times, difficult to navigate, but companies are adapting and demonstrating remarkable resilience", said Juan Millán, CEO & Founder of Gedeth Network. "From tariffs to wars, businesses aren't retreating-they're rewriting playbooks with pragmatic optimism, evolving from China+1 to China+N for risk mitigation".

The report underscores forward-looking determination: no retreat from global stages, but smarter engagement via tech, markets, and partnerships.

About Gedeth Network
Gedeth Research Center is the business unit of Gedeth Network that provides global market intelligence through its network in more than 75 countries. Learn more: www.gedeth.com.

Fonte: Business Wire